Robinhood Markets Inc. is reportedly exploring deeper expansion into the prediction markets space, a sector that allows investors to trade contracts tied to real-world events — from interest rate decisions and elections to sports outcomes and entertainment results.
In an interview with Reuters published Monday (Oct. 13), JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and international, said the company is evaluating multiple paths for growth — including acquisitions, joint ventures, strategic partnerships, or building proprietary event-contract products.
“We believe in the power of prediction markets and think they play an important role at the intersection of news, economics, politics, sports and culture,” Mackenzie said earlier this year when announcing Robinhood’s partnership with Kalshi.
Building on Existing Partnerships
Robinhood already has a foothold in this emerging asset class through partnerships with:
- Kalshi – A CFTC-regulated prediction exchange where users can trade on the outcomes of macroeconomic and political events.
- ForecastEx – A platform from Interactive Brokers Group offering event-based contracts and forecast trading.
These partnerships have enabled Robinhood users to access prediction markets directly within the app, merging speculative event trading with mainstream investing.
Mackenzie said the company’s next phase will likely involve scaling these capabilities, either by acquiring smaller platforms or launching in-house prediction market products that align with Robinhood’s retail-friendly interface.
| Growth Pathway | Description | Strategic Value |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | Buy smaller event-trading platforms | Immediate user and tech integration |
| Partnerships | Expand collaborations with regulated operators | Shared infrastructure and compliance |
| In-House Development | Build a proprietary Robinhood prediction product | Brand control and user experience |
Prediction Markets Gain Regulatory Momentum
Interest in prediction markets has accelerated in 2025 following the U.S. presidential election, which drove massive user engagement across political and economic forecasting platforms.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave the sector a significant boost in September when it issued a no-action letter to QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, both subsidiaries of Polymarket — a crypto-based prediction market operator.
The letter effectively granted Polymarket a regulatory path to re-enter the U.S. market, after years of operating offshore.
“The CFTC’s decision marked a turning point,” said Alex Monroe, digital asset policy analyst at Fintech Policy Network. “It signals that event contracts can operate within the regulatory perimeter rather than outside it.”
This development follows months of loosening regulatory posture under the Trump administration, which has encouraged fintech firms to explore novel, event-driven financial instruments.
ICE’s $2 Billion Bet on Event-Driven Finance
Adding to the momentum, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) — announced on Oct. 7 that it had invested $2 billion in Polymarket, gaining a significant financial stake and becoming the global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data.
This partnership positions ICE at the center of a fast-evolving market that bridges financial data, forecasting, and real-time event analytics.
| Company | Recent Development | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Received no-action letter from CFTC | Reentry into U.S. market |
| ICE (NYSE Owner) | Invested $2B in Polymarket | Establishes event-data distribution role |
| Robinhood | Exploring deeper presence via partnerships or acquisitions | Expands retail access to prediction trading |
“This kind of institutional participation legitimizes prediction markets as a serious financial vertical,” said Fawzi Itani, principal at Forerunner Ventures.
Funding Flows Into Prediction and Event Markets
Beyond major exchanges, venture funding is also pouring into the space.
In August, peer-to-peer sports prediction platform Novig raised $18 million in Series A funding, led by Forerunner Ventures, to expand into new sports, deepen coverage, and introduce new event features.
“Novig sits at the center of several key secular trends in gaming and entertainment,” said Itani. “Consumers increasingly are spending their time, energy and attention with financial products.”
The statement underscores how prediction markets now blur the lines between investing, entertainment, and interactive forecasting, appealing to younger, digitally native investors — a demographic already central to Robinhood’s user base.
Why Robinhood’s Move Matters
Robinhood’s potential expansion into event-based markets represents a strategic evolution toward real-time, participatory finance — a category that fuses social sentiment, data, and capital flows.
Analysts say that integrating prediction markets could:
- Diversify Robinhood’s revenue through fees and spreads on event contracts.
- Broaden user engagement with content-driven financial products.
- Position the firm as a gateway between retail investing and alternative asset innovation.
“Prediction markets allow users to engage with news and finance in an interactive way,” said Amanda Greene, fintech analyst at MarketScope Advisors. “Robinhood’s entry could bring these tools from the niche to the mainstream.”
The Bigger Picture: A New Asset Class Emerges
Prediction markets — once viewed as speculative or fringe — are now being reimagined as data-rich forecasting tools and financial instruments that reflect crowd-based intelligence.
As Robinhood, ICE, and Kalshi deepen their involvement, the U.S. is witnessing the early stages of a regulated prediction market ecosystem, potentially worth billions in annual trading volume by 2026.
| Trend | Implication |
|---|---|
| Regulatory clarity from CFTC | Enables domestic market growth |
| Institutional investment (ICE, Polymarket) | Signals mainstream acceptance |
| Fintech partnerships (Robinhood, Kalshi) | Brings accessibility to retail users |
FAQs
What are prediction markets?
Platforms that let users buy and sell contracts based on real-world outcomes — such as elections, economic data, or sports results.
How is Robinhood involved?
It has partnered with Kalshi and ForecastEx and is considering acquisitions or in-house product launches in the prediction space.
Why is interest in prediction markets growing?
Regulatory support, political engagement, and the convergence of finance with entertainment are fueling growth.
What role does ICE play?
As the owner of the NYSE, ICE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket positions it as a global distributor of event-based market data.
How could this impact Robinhood users?
Users may soon see expanded access to event contracts directly in the Robinhood app, offering new ways to trade on real-world outcomes.