CFOs can plan for higher costs—but not for chaos. When tariffs shift overnight, suppliers stumble, or regulations rewrite the rules, even the most robust forecasts collapse.
According to the Certainty Project’s latest 2025 Data Book, which surveyed 60 CFOs at U.S. middle-market companies ($100 million to $1 billion in annual revenue), uncertainty is now the single most destabilizing factor in global finance.
From policy risk and margin erosion to cooling demand, the findings offer a real-time snapshot of how corporate finance leaders are pricing volatility itself—and how banks, FinTechs, and payments providers can help clients manage the fallout.
“CFOs can budget for inflation, but not for indecision,” said Dr. Karen Meyers, Senior Research Director at the Certainty Project. “Policy uncertainty translates directly into margin pressure, supply chain strain, and operational drag.”
Key Findings: The Cost of CFO Uncertainty
| Metric | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| CFOs Facing High Regulatory Uncertainty | 60% (among globally exposed firms) | 4x higher than domestically focused peers |
| CFOs Reporting Margin Declines Despite Price Hikes | 60% overall | 75% among globally exposed firms |
| CFOs Seeing Lower Customer Demand | 50% overall | 90% among globally exposed firms |
| Firms Reporting Supplier Cost Increases | 93% among globally exposed | Inventory financing risk rises |
| CFOs Viewing “America First” Trade Policy as Harmful | 55% overall | 80% among high-import firms |
| Companies Reporting Operational Disruptions from Regulation | 83% of high-uncertainty firms | Added compliance and planning costs |
| Estimated Cost of Uncertainty (Revenue Impact) | 6% (down from 17% in early 2024) | Still material to liquidity and investment pacing |
Global Exposure: The Multiplier Effect
Global supply chains are becoming amplifiers of policy risk. The survey found that CFOs whose companies source 30% or more of their inputs abroad are four times as likely to face high regulatory uncertainty as those sourcing 15% or less.
“Cross-border exposure concentrates risk,” said James Adler, Chief Economist at the Global Trade Institute. “When tariffs or rules change, globally dependent firms face shocks across cost, timing, and liquidity.”
For banks and payment providers, this means new demand for:
- Flexible liquidity solutions
- Currency hedging instruments
- Dynamic pricing models that adapt to tariff shifts
Margin Squeeze: Price Hikes Aren’t Protection
Three out of four CFOs increased prices in the last 12 months, but six in ten still saw profit margins fall. Among globally exposed companies, that number jumps to 75%.
| CFO Segment | Raised Prices | Still Report Margin Decline |
|---|---|---|
| Globally Exposed | 78% | 75% |
| Domestic-Focused | 71% | 38% |
“Price hikes are not a cure for volatility,” said Lisa Reynolds, Senior Partner at Horizon Consulting. “Upstream instability—input costs, logistics, and tariffs—erodes pricing power faster than CFOs can adjust.”
This has major implications for payments teams, who may need to redesign settlement terms and revenue recognition to account for these pressures.
Demand Slump: The Cooling Effect of Macroeconomic Pressure
Nearly half of CFOs report lower customer demand. For globally dependent firms, the figure climbs to nearly nine in ten, especially in B2B industries with long sales cycles.
“Weak global demand is now colliding with higher financing costs,” said David Lin, Corporate Strategy Advisor at Meridian Capital. “That double drag is creating cash-flow stress and compressing working capital windows.”
| Market Segment | CFOs Reporting Demand Decline |
|---|---|
| Globally Exposed | 90% |
| Domestic-Focused | 44% |
| B2B | 52% |
| Consumer-Facing | 47% |
This shift forces CFOs to rethink credit terms, receivables management, and inventory financing—especially for trade-exposed sectors like manufacturing and logistics.
Supplier Strain: Cost and Reliability Collide
CFOs with heavy international supplier exposure face a double squeeze: prices and reliability issues rising together. 93% of globally exposed CFOs report supplier price hikes, while over half also cite delivery disruptions or quality issues.
| Supplier Metric | Globally Exposed Firms | Domestic Firms |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier Price Increase | 93% | 48% |
| Supplier Reliability Issues | 55% | 29% |
“Financially weaker businesses face the toughest challenge,” noted Meyers. “They can’t absorb price volatility and struggle to renegotiate terms with stronger suppliers.”
This tension complicates credit, trade finance, and service-level agreements (SLAs) across sectors.
Tariff Skepticism: Protectionism Meets CFO Reality
More than half of CFOs believe a renewed “America First” trade policy would harm the U.S. economy. Skepticism grows to 80% among firms heavily reliant on foreign inputs.
“Tariffs look like protection but act like taxes,” said Adler. “They raise costs, distort supply chains, and weaken long-term competitiveness.”
Among goods producers, nearly two-thirds say protectionist policies would reduce capital expenditure and slow supplier diversification—key growth levers for 2026 planning.
Regulatory Disruption: The Hidden Friction of Compliance
Uncertainty about regulatory timelines and compliance standards is directly disrupting operations. Among companies that report high regulatory uncertainty, 83% experienced measurable operational friction in the past 12 months, including:
- Increased compliance costs
- Delayed expansion plans
- Slower onboarding and program governance
For banks and FinTechs, this adds complexity to risk management, fraud controls, and cross-border approvals, leading to longer deal cycles and project delays.
“Regulatory uncertainty hits velocity,” said Reynolds. “Every pause in approval adds hidden cost to cash flow.”
The Cost of Uncertainty: Still Significant, but Easing
The revenue impact of uncertainty is declining—but remains material.
In August 2025, companies facing high uncertainty estimated it cost them 6% of annual revenue, down from a 17% peak in early 2024. Across all respondents, the average hit is around 3%.
| Year | Revenue Impact of Uncertainty | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Peak) | 17% | Post-trade policy turbulence |
| Early 2025 | 9% | Stabilization begins |
| August 2025 | 6% | Normalization but persistent drag |
While improvement is visible, the remaining 6% drag underscores continued risk in cash flow forecasting, credit appetite, and capital investment timing.
“Uncertainty is still the silent expense on every CFO’s balance sheet,” said Lin. “It distorts how leaders price risk and allocate capital.”
Expert Voices: Managing the Era of Policy Volatility
1. Dr. Karen Meyers, Certainty Project
“Policy risk isn’t abstract—it’s measurable. CFOs can now quantify uncertainty as a percent of revenue loss.”
2. James Adler, Global Trade Institute
“Cross-border exposure multiplies uncertainty. Firms need hedging, dynamic pricing, and adaptive credit strategies.”
3. Lisa Reynolds, Horizon Consulting
“Margin resilience starts with supply chain transparency and end-to-end visibility into costs.”
4. David Lin, Meridian Capital
“Financial teams must stress-test for uncertainty just as they do for liquidity and debt covenants.”
Why This Matters?
The Certainty Project’s 2025 findings highlight a sobering reality: uncertainty has become the most expensive variable in global business planning.
From tariffs and trade policy to regulatory gridlock, unpredictability affects every line item — from working capital cycles to credit terms and pricing strategy.
Financial leaders, payments innovators, and banking partners that build resilience through data visibility, flexible liquidity tools, and scenario modeling will be the ones that thrive as uncertainty itself becomes a permanent operating cost.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Certainty Project?
It’s a research initiative tracking how policy, regulatory, and macroeconomic uncertainty affect CFOs across U.S. middle-market firms.
What industries were included in the survey?
The study covers manufacturing, services, technology, logistics, and retail companies with $100 million–$1 billion in revenue.
How is uncertainty quantified?
Firms estimate annual revenue loss directly attributable to policy, tariff, or regulatory unpredictability.
Why are globally exposed firms more vulnerable?
They face compounded risk from tariff changes, shipping volatility, and cross-border regulation.
How can CFOs mitigate uncertainty risk?
By diversifying suppliers, adopting flexible credit terms, and deploying data-driven forecasting tools.
What does this mean for banks and FinTechs?
More demand for liquidity solutions, risk modeling, and real-time payments visibility in uncertain policy environments.