Apple is poised to surpass Samsung in global smartphone sales and retain the top spot through the end of the decade, according to a new report by Counterpoint Research. After Samsung’s dominance in global smartphone sales since 2012, Apple is expected to reclaim the title of the world’s largest smartphone vendor thanks to the success of its iPhone 17 series and several other key factors driving growth.
Counterpoint Research attributed Apple’s momentum to a combination of strong market reception for the iPhone 17, an evolving smartphone replacement cycle, and an upcoming pipeline of new devices including a more affordable series and its first foldable iPhones.
“Apple’s growth is propelled by the inflection point in the replacement cycle, which will be further strengthened by the huge number of second-hand iPhones set to be upgraded over the next few years,” said Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint.
Apple’s Momentum: Key Drivers of Growth
Apple’s iPhone 17 series, which launched in September 2025, has fueled a 9% year-over-year growth in shipments, marking a strong performance in the smartphone market. The company’s growth is expected to continue as upgrades from consumers who purchased phones during the COVID-19 boom reach their peak.
| Apple Growth Factors | Details |
|---|---|
| iPhone 17 Series Reception | 9% YoY growth in Q3 2025 shipments |
| Replacement Cycle Inflection | Consumers upgrading from 2020-2022 phones |
| Second-hand iPhone Market | 358M second-hand units sold between 2023–2025, fueling upgrade demand |
| Upcoming Models | iPhone 17e, foldable iPhone (2026), flip iPhone (2027) |
Another key driver is the second-hand iPhone market. According to Counterpoint, 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025 will likely result in a surge of upgrades as users trade in older models for the latest iPhones.
“This cycle, combined with new product launches, positions Apple for steady growth well into 2029,” said Wang.
Future Prospects: New Products and the “e” Series
Apple’s affordable “e” series has already contributed to its strong momentum, starting with the launch of the iPhone 16e in February 2025. With a price point starting at $599, the iPhone 16e has brought new customers into the Apple ecosystem.
The iPhone 17e, expected to launch in the first half of 2026, will further extend this growth, reaching even more price-sensitive customers.
Additionally, Apple’s much-anticipated foldable iPhone will be released by the end of 2026, with a flip iPhone to follow in late 2027. These new devices are expected to significantly boost Apple’s position in the premium and mid-tier smartphone segments, positioning the company for continued dominance in the years to come.
iOS Ecosystem: A Competitive Advantage
One of the critical factors in Apple’s continued success is its iOS ecosystem, which includes seamless integration across a variety of devices, from iPhones to MacBooks, iPads, Apple Watches, and AirPods. As Apple’s ecosystem strengthens, consumer loyalty increases, with more users committing to Apple products due to the compatibility and syncing benefits of staying within the ecosystem.
“With the increasing preference for iOS and a substantial number of older models in Apple’s installed base, the company is well-positioned to retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through 2029,” Counterpoint noted.
Samsung’s Decline: What’s Behind the Shift
Samsung, which has held the top spot in global smartphone sales for over a decade, faces pressure from Apple’s strong product lineup, increasing consumer preference for iOS, and a slowdown in its flagship device sales. While Samsung remains a dominant player, its growth trajectory is expected to be slower than Apple’s as the company struggles with a saturated smartphone market.
Counterpoint Research indicated that while Samsung will still play a critical role in the market, especially in emerging regions, its relative decline is expected due to Apple’s aggressive pricing strategies, hardware innovations, and stronger user retention through its ecosystem.
The Road Ahead for Apple and Samsung
Apple is set to overtake Samsung in global market share over the next few years, primarily driven by iPhone upgrades, the continued success of the iPhone 17 series, and an expanding portfolio of affordable models like the “e” series.
Meanwhile, Samsung will likely continue to innovate, especially in foldable phones, but will face challenges in maintaining its leadership in a market increasingly dominated by Apple’s ecosystem.
| Key Milestones | Apple | Samsung |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | iPhone 17 series launches; iPhone 16e continues to grow market share | Galaxy Z Flip and Fold continue momentum in foldable market |
| 2026 | iPhone 17e launches; foldable iPhone set for release | New Galaxy S series models and foldable phones |
| 2027 | Flip iPhone set for launch | Samsung’s foldables remain key offering |
Final Thoughts
Apple is on track to overtake Samsung as the world’s leading smartphone maker by 2029, fueled by a combination of product innovation, strong market reception of the iPhone 17 series, and continued expansion into the affordable smartphone market with the “e” series.
As the company continues to build momentum with upcoming releases, including foldable and flip iPhones, it is well-positioned to maintain a leading role in the smartphone market for years to come.
FAQs
Why is Apple set to overtake Samsung?
Apple’s iPhone 17 series, strong growth in second-hand iPhone upgrades, and upcoming product releases, such as the foldable and flip iPhones, position it to take the top spot in global smartphone sales.
How does Apple’s “e” series affect its growth
The iPhone 16e has brought new, price-sensitive customers into the Apple ecosystem, and the upcoming iPhone 17e is expected to extend this growth in 2026.
Will Samsung continue to lead in some markets?
Yes. While Apple is expected to surpass Samsung globally, Samsung will still hold a significant market share in certain regions, especially in the foldable smartphone market.
How does Apple’s ecosystem affect its sales?
Apple’s integrated ecosystem (iOS, Mac, iPad, etc.) enhances consumer loyalty, making users more likely to stick with Apple products. This contributes to Apple’s long-term growth.
What role do second-hand iPhones play in Apple’s growth?
Apple’s large base of second-hand iPhones is expected to drive future upgrades, as many users of older models will likely purchase new iPhones.