Mizuho Offers Up Positive Predictions for Mobile Payments’ 2019

The new year is still pretty young; we’re barely a week into it, after all. So it’s not surprising that some of the biggest new predictions are still just emerging. In fact, Mizuho dropped word our way by way of its 2019 Financial Technology Outlook that’s going to bode well for a lot of fintech providers out there, though not necessarily the whole field.

First, Mizuho made it clear who was its big pick for 2019: Visa. Visa is expected to generate “high-teen EPS growth” for 2019, thanks to several factors including the rise of cross-border ecommerce, new pricing related to ATMs, and the start of contactless payments in the United States. Even during economic downturns in 2009 and 2010, Visa still managed earnings per share growth, so Visa is a clear winner going forward.

Visa wasn’t the only top-drawer fintech offering. Also look for previous winners to carry on, including Mastercard, Square, WEX and Worldpay. Mastercard, as one of the leading credit card providers out there, has a history of surviving economic downturn, while Square has been working to actively diversify its business into not only new products but new territories. That helps provide insulation against downturns as they don’t happen everywhere at the same pace. WEX, meanwhile, is converting big-oil portfolios to help provide an edge, and Worldpay has had a lot of benefit from the ecommerce market.

In an odd twist, Mizuho also announced it was lowering price targets and EPS estimates for much of its coverage. Price targets were lowered an average of 12 percent and multiples below five-year averages were put in play.

Mizuho’s reasoning is certainly sound here, but it’s odd that it didn’t include PayPal in its lineup. PayPal’s recent diversification has been nothing but helpful, even if it was reacting to the loss of eBay that didn’t actually happen. It’s showing up in many more places while also keeping its original connection, and that should keep it nicely aloft price-wise going into 2019. Plus, it’s a mobile payments firm, and mobile payments in general have benefited from the ecommerce gains of the last few years.

Still, despite a pretty substantial omission, Mizuho has delivered an impressive look at the near-term future of fintech and mobile payments that should be worth paying attention to.